The UK government has released a stark warning in its latest national security strategy, urging that Britain must be prepared for the possibility of a wartime attack on its own soil. The review highlights threats from Russia, Iran, and the broader shifting global order as justification for urgent defence planning and military investment.
A Nation at Risk: Homeland Threats Return to Forefront
In the most serious assessment of domestic threat in decades, the review outlines that:
“For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario.”
The report cites adversaries like Russia and Iran as laying “foundations for future conflict,” particularly by targeting energy supplies, infrastructure, and undersea communication cables.
Rising Threat from Russia
Officials describe Russia as the principal threat, citing increasing cyberattacks, sabotage, and military posturing. The war in Ukraine has escalated these indirect activities, with UK officials warning about:
- Persistent attacks on undersea fibreoptic cables, which carry 99% of the UK’s digital communications.
- Nuclear posturing aimed at deterring NATO responses.
- Increased use of espionage and digital interference.
Iran’s Escalating Activity in the UK
Iran is also singled out as a growing concern, particularly for:
- Targeted attacks on dissidents living in the UK.
- Intelligence operations intended to silence critics of the regime.
- A growing strategic alliance with Russia.
The report says Iranian activity on British soil is “increasing and poses a direct threat.”
Strategic Shift: A New Tone on National Security
This review marks a dramatic shift from the 2021 review under Boris Johnson, which focused on pandemic resilience and vaccine development. The new strategy pivots fully toward geopolitical rivalry, state aggression, and the increasing militarization of digital and energy infrastructure.
Starmer’s Foreword: “The World Has Changed”
In a written foreword, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said:
“Russian aggression menaces our continent. Extremist ideologies are on the rise. Technology is transforming the nature of both war and domestic security.”
He confirmed his commitment to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, aligning with NATO goals and echoing NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent comments that failing to act could have dire consequences.
What About China?
Interestingly, the review avoids calling China a direct threat, despite ongoing espionage concerns. Instead, it labels China a “challenge” and calls for better communication to avoid misunderstandings.
However, this was immediately contradicted by Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who described China as a:
“Sophisticated and persistent threat to the UK.”
A Downing Street spokesperson later downplayed Lammy’s remarks, reaffirming the review’s softer language.
Defence Industry to Ramp Up
The strategy follows a recent defence industry review that recommends:
- More drone production
- Expanded submarine fleets
- Greater investment in AI-based warfare capabilities
This is seen as essential for meeting new, unconventional threats that blur the lines between peace, sabotage, and open war.
Political Criticism: Accusations of Softness
Opposition voices, including Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel, have criticized the government for what they view as mixed signals, particularly on China:
“The government has gone cap in hand to China to bail out the UK economy,” Patel said.
Critics say the UK should take a firmer stance on foreign interference, especially amid growing reports of Chinese and Iranian influence operations.
The Need for Readiness
This year’s strategy underscores a significant escalation in tone and urgency around national security. The message is clear: the era of homeland complacency is over. With the international environment becoming increasingly hostile and complex, the UK must build resilience, invest in deterrence, and prepare for worst-case scenarios.
